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How the AI bubble bursts
How the AI bubble bursts
The catalysts for a crash are already laid out, and it can happen sooner than most expect. AI is here to stay. If used right, chances are it will make us all more productive. That, on the other hand, does not mean it will be a good investment. Big tech doesn’t need to win, just outspend Magnificent 7 companies are increasing capex to their biggest ever to differentiate their tech from each other and the big AI labs, but the key realization is that they don’t have to spend it to win. It’s a defensive move for them, if they commit $50B, OpenAI and Anthropic need to go raise $100B each to stay competitive, which makes them reliant on investors’ money. As the numbers get bigger, the amount of funds that can write checks of the size required to fill such amounts gets smaller. And many of them are now getting bombed in the Gulf. This is the reason there’s a push for IPOs, it’s because it’s the only option left to keep the funding coming. Taking this into account, Google is extremely well positioned to weather the storm. When they announce capex expenditure, they don’t spend it overnight. They can simply deploy month by month until their competitors struggle to raise and get forced to capitulate. At that point they can just ramp down the spending and declare victory in a cornered market. They don’t need capex, they just need to make it very clear for everyone that nobody can outspend them. It is hard to picture as numbers get so big, but Alphabet (Google’s parent) is ten times more valuable than the biggest military company 1. This also has a great implication for the Mag 7, especially Google: their capex will be a lot smaller in practice than projected, and as investors hate to see high capex in tech, the market will probably reward that if it materializes. As of March 2026, Alphabet’s market cap is ~$2T while Lockheed Martin’s is ~$120B. ↩
·martinvol.pe·
How the AI bubble bursts
マリウス . Hold on to Your Hardware
マリウス . Hold on to Your Hardware
A warning about rising prices, vanishing consumer choice, and a future where owning a computer may matter more than ever as hardware, power, and control drift toward data centers and away from people.
·マリウス.com·
マリウス . Hold on to Your Hardware
Dear Time Lords: Freeze Computers In 1993
Dear Time Lords: Freeze Computers In 1993
This is a semi-satirical / joking-not-joking post (spun out of a private mastodon post) that I will be taking absolutely no questions or comments about. If it does not amuse you please do not tell me in gruesome well-actually detail why it is a bad idea.br /br /My proposal: Computers should have
·graydon2.dreamwidth.org·
Dear Time Lords: Freeze Computers In 1993
Breaking Free – Forbrukerrådet
Breaking Free – Forbrukerrådet
In the new report Breaking Free: Pathways to a fair technological future, the Norwegian Consumer Council has delved into enshittification and how to resist it. The report shows how this phenomenon affects both consumers and society at large, but that it is possible to turn the tide. Together with more than 70 consumer groups and other actors in Europe and the US, we are sending letter to policymakers in the EU/EEA, UK and the US.
·forbrukerradet.no·
Breaking Free – Forbrukerrådet
Use Protocols, Not Services
Use Protocols, Not Services
The Internet is almost anonymous and privacy-preserving by design. I mean, unless some administrator actively tries to track you, there is no built-in...
·notnotp.com·
Use Protocols, Not Services